Congress comes back

REVERSING decades of decline, the Congress party has won India’s month-long general election by a bigger margin than its most optimistic followers had dared dream of. As results were counted on Saturday May 16th it looked likely to win around 200 of 543 available seats, which would represent the biggest win by any party for 18 years.

Under the prime ministership of Manmohan Singh, Congress will return to power at the helm of a simpler and, it is expected, more stable coalition than it has presided over for the past five years. Its United Progressive Alliance was projected to win around 260 seats. For additinal support, Congress will be able to choose from an eager host of independents and small regional parties, including several recently jettisoned allies.

India’s Communist parties, which provided support and endless headaches to the outgoing government for most of its tenure, will not be among them. The leftists were projected to do unprecedentedly badly, winning around 24 seats—down from their 2004 tally of 62. A new Congress ally in West Bengal, the Trinamul Congress, is the main beneficiary. It was set to win 20 of 42 seats in West Bengal, a state the Communists have ruled for three decades.

Confounding most predictions, another Congress ally, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party, has clung on to win around half of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, a state it swept in 2004. Yet it was Congress’s performance that was most remarkable. In the absence of any obvious national issue, or enthusiasm for Mr Singh and his patron, the party’s leader, Sonia Gandhi, it trounced its main rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which looked likely to win around 120 seats. In Rajasthan, which the Hindu nationalists swept in 2004, Congress was expected to win 21 of a possible 25 seats. It was also set to win ten seats in Gujarat, which is known for Hindu-Muslim violence and was considered solidly for the BJP.

Perhaps most significantly, Congress may have more than doubled its former account in Uttar Pradesh (UP), with 21 of 80 seats. That would probably make it the second-biggest party in India’s most populous state, behind the Samajwadi party, a low-caste Hindu outfit and sometime Congress ally, which was expected to win 23 seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is dedicated to dalits (former “untouchables”) and rules UP, looked set to win 20 seats—half the tally its ambitious leader, Mayawati, had counted on.

At first glance, this looked to vindicate Congress’s decision to contest solo in UP, a giant state it once dominated and has long talked of recapturing. Congress’s decision to stand alone in Bihar, where it looked set to win only two out of 40 seats, was less fruitful—though given the collapse of its erstwhile ally there, the Rashtriya Janata Dal party, from 22 seats in 2004 to perhaps three, it may not have been costly.

Both decisions were attributed to Rahul Gandhi, Mrs Gandhi’s 38-year-old son. His father, Rajiv Gandhi, grandmother, Indira Gandhi, and great-grandfather, Jawaharlal Nehru, were all prime ministers of India. Mr Singh, a 76-year-old economist, is set to be the first Indian prime minister since Nehru to return to the office after serving a five-year term. But many expect that Mr Gandhi, who was re-elected to his safe seat in UP, will take over the job within a year or two.

Appearing alongside Mrs Gandhi on Saturday, Mr Singh, who has recently undergone heart-bypass surgery and campaigned little during the election, said he hoped Mr Gandhi, who entered politics in 2004, would agree to join his next cabinet. Commenting on her party’s victory, Mrs Gandhi, the enigmatic Italian-born widow of Rajiv, said: “Eventually the people of India know what’s good for them and they always make the right choice.”

That an unexpected multitude of the 714m voters registered for this election plumped for Congress is undeniable. Early figures suggest Congress increased its vote-share from 26.7% in 2004 to around 29%. And its leaders can congratulate themselves on this. Ruling in a coalition for the first time, Congress has delivered steadier government than many expected. It can also lay claim to unprecedented economic growth for its first four years in power—even if this was largely founded on economic reforms introduced by its predecessors and unusually clement global economic conditions.

Congress also seems to have benefitted from voters’ rising distaste for its rivals. At a time of relative calm between Hindus and Muslims, the BJP used its Hindu-supremacist rhetoric sparingly, and struggled for a convincing alternative. It also seems to have been worse affected than Congress by the traditional anti-incumbency urge of Indian voters, having until recently run state-level governments in several of its northern strongholds, including Rajasthan.

Excited by their success, some in Congress detect a deeper trend—a shrinkage in the appeal of regional parties, such as the BSP, whose rise has constituted the main trend in Indian politics for two decades. That would be good, giving hope for less chaotic and corrupt central governments than Indians are sadly accustomed too. Alas, Congress’s small success in UP is too little evidence for this claim. But Indians can at least expect their new government to be less fractious than its predecessor. And considering the remarkably messy coalition that might have been, if the vote had been as divided as predicted, that is a major blessing.